This may be the most important article you read this year, this decade... because this article may inspire you to become a professional at living, instead of remaining a rank amateur... aka bumbling idiot.
Risk Management
You have two options. You need to choose. You need to choose the option that has the lower cost to your reproductive success if it turns out to be wrong.
Now, I suspect, that almost none of us think about cost in terms of reproductive success, but according to evolutionary psychology, you are a mere vehicle to your genes, your genes are only interested in making copies of themselves, i.e. reproduce, and make your particular genes more dominant in the gene pool.
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